Supply Chain Forecasting

Forecasting Algorithm Simulator

Simulasi kebutuhan Order → Warehouse → Production → Procurement → Vendor berdasarkan Demand, Lead Time, External Factors, dan Safety Stock.

Forecast Formula FORECAST = Q + X + Y + Z

Flow Diagram

Visual Forecast Flow

Order → Vendor
ORDER / USER F 0 kg
LT1 = 0 hari
WAREHOUSE Order Requirement 0 kg
LT2 = 0 hari
PRODUCTION Production Requirement 0 kg
LT3 = 0 hari
PROCUREMENT Procurement Requirement 0 kg
LT4 = 0 hari
VENDOR Q Requirement 0 kg
Q 0 kg
+ X 0 kg
+ Y 0 kg
+ Z 0 kg
FINAL FORECAST 0 kg

Forecast Calculation

Kebutuhan Per Tahap

ORDER REQUIREMENT 0 kg F + LT1 Demand
PRODUCTION REQUIREMENT 0 kg F + LT1 + LT2 Demand
PROCUREMENT REQUIREMENT 0 kg F + LT1 + LT2 + LT3 Demand
VENDOR / TOTAL REQUIREMENT 0 kg Q = F + LT1 + LT2 + LT3 + LT4 Demand
How Calculation Works

F = Base Daily Forecast.

LT1 = Order → Warehouse Lead Time.

LT2 = Warehouse → Production Lead Time.

LT3 = Production → Procurement Lead Time.

LT4 = Procurement → Vendor Lead Time.

Q = F + Lead Time Demand.

X = Market / Seasonal Adjustment.

Y = Operational / Machine Risk Adjustment.

Z = Financial Adjustment.

Final Forecast = Q + X + Y + Z.

Calculation Breakdown

Parameter Formula Result

Simulation Table

Stage Lead Time Cumulative Lead Time Requirement Status